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An Amazing Tutorial For Bayesian Reasoning

Published by cjlise July 22nd, 2008 in Software, Health, Science, Web
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This web page is an amazing tutorial for application of Bayes’ theorem. One of the problem resolved by this theorem is:

1% of women at age forty who participate in routine screening have breast cancer. 80% of women with breast cancer will get positive mammographies. 9.6% of women without breast cancer will also get positive mammographies. A woman in this age group had a positive mammography in a routine screening. What is the probability that she actually has breast cancer?

This answer is given here:

And the formula deduced from Bayes’ Theorem giving P(positive|Cancer) is:

An Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning

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