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An Amazing Tutorial For Bayesian Reasoning

Published by cjlise July 22nd, 2008 in Health, Science, Software, Web

This web page is an amazing tutorial for application of Bayes’ theorem. One of the problem resolved by this theorem is:

1% of women at age forty who participate in routine screening have breast cancer. 80% of women with breast cancer will get positive mammographies. 9.6% of women without breast cancer will also get positive mammographies. A woman in this age group had a positive mammography in a routine screening. What is the probability that she actually has breast cancer?

This answer is given here:

And the formula deduced from Bayes’ Theorem giving P(positive|Cancer) is:

An Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning

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